ARK Invest Predicts Possible Tesla SpaceX Merger Announcement This Year; Musk Disputes Again
Tesla CEO repeats that separating the China business has never been discussed despite continued merger speculation.
Elon Musk restated that Tesla has no plans to separate its China business from the rest of the company, responding to a new round of merger speculation from ARK Invest.
What Happened
On ARK Invest's "Brainstorm" podcast, chief futurist Brett Winton and research director Nick Grous argued a Tesla and SpaceX combination remains likely, with an announcement possible before the end of the year even if the deal itself would not close that quickly. Musk pushed back directly on X: "China is awesome. I strongly encourage people to visit." He also repeated language from late July, calling reports that Tesla executives had been told to prepare for a possible spinoff or closure of the China business ahead of a SpaceX tie up "absurdly fake news," and adding that separation had "never even come up in a discussion ever."
Why It Matters
Shanghai Gigafactory ships more than half of Tesla's global deliveries and functions as the company's main export hub for Europe and Asia. Winton called Tesla's Shanghai operations a "small ish wrinkle" for a merger rather than a real obstacle, since SpaceX's national security work with the U.S. government sits uneasily next to Tesla's manufacturing base in China. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives has pegged the odds of a Tesla-SpaceX merger at 80 to 90 percent by early 2027, adding another data point to that timeline even as Musk keeps rejecting specific mechanics reporters have described.
The Bottom Line
Tesla's China business remains intact and Musk has shown no interest in publicly walking back his position against separation. ARK's prediction of a year-end announcement adds to merger speculation, though analysts are describing convergence at the corporate level rather than necessarily the internal restructuring reported in July.
